Additional research found that in these games, the average margin of victory was 5.01 points.īettors may think that because the average margin of victory exceeds the supposed point spread value of home-field advantage, it would be a wise decision to back home teams. My analysis found that home teams have gone 4,412-3,044 (59.2%) straight up since the start of the 2005 season.

Past research has found that home-field advantage is vastly overvalued by NFL bettors, so I wanted to confirm Cooley’s statement and determine whether the same was true for college football bettors. “But most of the time, home-field advantage doesn’t mean a lot to the oddsmakers, and the betting public usually places a greater value on it than it should.”

“Very generally speaking, home-field advantage is worth about two points in college football,” said Cooley. According to Scott Cooley, an Odds Consultant for, that number should be slightly lower. If Team A would be 3-point favorites at home and 3-point underdogs on the road, then the change of venue is essentially worth six points.ĭespite the common consensus that home-field advantage is worth roughly three points, sharper sportsbooks have a dissenting opinion. If neither team should be favored on a neutral field, the home team would likely be favored by three points. That’s particularly true in college football where schools like Michigan play in massive stadiums while smaller schools like Bowling Green essentially play in a tiny shoebox.įor a quick example of how home-field advantage can theoretically affect the point spread, let’s examine a matchup between two evenly matched teams. There has been a general consensus that home-field advantage is worth around three points to the spread, although the number varies based on venue.

Many factors are taken into consideration when handicapping a game, but home-field advantage is one of the most common considerations.

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